Former Trump statistics chief slams Friday firing of Erika McEntarfer
Bill Beach said the president’s suggestions that the jobs report was rigged betrayed a misunderstanding in how those numbers are assembled.
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Trump fires statistics chief after soft jobs report
The monthly jobs report showed just 73,000 jobs in July, with big reductions to May’s and June’s numbers
Read MoreTrump is under water on some of his top issues — including immigration, poll shows
The president’s approval rating had been ticking upward since its biggest drop in April.
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Trump’s contract-cutting blitz rattles a once-flourishing DC industry
The General Services Administration, which oversees government contracting, is leading a review of more than 20,000 consulting agreements for what is “non-essential.”
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Trump’s chaotic economy is causing headaches for Democrats in New Jersey's governor race
The crowded contest in the Garden State shows how hard it is to address pocketbook issues.
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‘Anything can happen’: Trump doesn't seem fazed by recession worries
Trump has blamed shaky economic numbers on his predecessor.
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Warren Buffett shocks shareholders by announcing his intention to retire at the end of the year
Earlier, Buffett warned Saturday about the dire global consequences of President Donald Trump’s tariffs.
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Democrats look to Trump's poor economic numbers with anxious optimism
Following its latest round of focus groups, Navigator Research is urging Democrats to proactively push their own economic policies.
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Warning signs for Trump as pessimistic outlook on the economy grows among Americans
Trump’s winning issue is becoming one of his biggest liabilities as multiple polls this week reveal growing disapproval numbers on the economy.
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Trump, defiant on tariffs, claims trade deals are in the works
The president is foreshadowing deals with multiple trading partners in an apparent effort to quell economic anxiety and prove his tariff plan is working.
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US markets have spiraled. Americans had doubts about Trump’s tariffs before that.
Recent polls showed Americans were wary of tariffs, even before the president launched his plan to realign the global trade order.
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Trump says tariff policies ‘WILL NEVER CHANGE’ amid plunging stocks, Chinese response
The president’s sweeping tariff plan has thrown markets into chaos and risks sparking a global trade war.
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‘There are no guarantees’: Scott Bessent won't rule out a recession
He also said he isn’t worried about stock market turbulence, following the worst week in the market in two years.
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Trump’s business acumen has long been his armor. It’s being put to the test.
The normally bullish Trump over the weekend declined to rule out the possibility of a full-blown recession as his tariff policies threaten to spark a massive global trade war.
Read MoreTrump won't rule out a recession in 2025
“I hate to predict things like that,” Trump said when pressed about the possibility of a recession during a recorded interview that aired on “Sunday Morning Futures with Maria Bartiromo.”
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Beijing’s deflation dilemma: Falling prices signal bigger troubles ahead for China’s economy
Such challenges are the backdrop to the annual session of China’s parliament.
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7 things to watch for during Trump’s joint address to Congress
Look for a more emboldened president compared to the Trump of 2017.
Read More‘He Finally Shot the Hostage’: Trump’s Trade War Is a Brutal Reality Check
Trump imposing new tariffs on top of broader policy uncertainty will mean a hit to growth. The question is how large of a hit it will ultimately be.
Read MoreHow Trump Will Reverse Biden’s Attempted Antitrust Revolution
Lina Khan and her allies tried to remake antitrust law. Trump’s team is putting an end to that.
Read MoreWhite House trade chief says Trump will 'structurally shift' the economy
White House trade chief says Trump will 'structurally shift' the economy
Read MoreRep. Adrian Smith: US needs to be 'aggressive and effective' with tariffs
Rep. Adrian Smith: US needs to be 'aggressive and effective' with tariffs
Read MoreTrump's spending freeze spreads chaos across US
Supporters of climate, infrastructure, mortgage, tech, health, veterans’ and other projects expressed alarm as tens of thousands of programs appeared possibly at risk.
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Lael Brainard's ‘Crisis Management Agency’ — and Her Warning For Trump
Joe Biden’s top economic adviser opens up on harrowing moments from her time in the White House, and what makes her nervous about the Trump agenda.
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Stephen Miran is Trump's pick to lead Council of Economic Advisers
“Steve will work with the rest of my Economic Team to deliver a Great Economic Boom that lifts up all Americans,” Trump said.
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Biden: Trump’s tax and tariffs plans are a ‘major mistake’
Five weeks after the election, the president took his sharpest swing at Trump’s policy plans.
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Trump voters feel very differently about things now that he’s won, our new poll shows
A pair of POLITICO|Morning Consult polls, one conducted in the final days of the election and the other conducted after Trump won, show how public opinion has changed.
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It’s still the economy: What TV ads tell us about each campaign’s closing message
The final paid messages: Economy, culture wars and character.
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Harris is pounding Trump on fascism. Some Dems think that’s a mistake.
Harris has ratcheted up her warnings about the dangers of a second Trump term in recent weeks.
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Harris' economic plan supercharges Biden proposals to fight inflation
The vice president’s plan aims to make housing more affordable, ease health care costs and crack down on corporations for rising grocery prices.
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Harris breaks from ‘Bidenomics’ in North Carolina
The vice president makes her pitch in North Carolina, where Democrats have long hoped to flip the closely divided state.
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‘America is not a museum’: Why Democrats are going big on housing despite the risks
Vice President Kamala Harris is trying to flip the script and own an issue impacting large swaths of Americans.
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Harris goes after Trump on economy and inflation in new ad
The vice president is trying to shore up the affordability argument.
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Trump, Harris lay out tax plans with trillions of dollars on the line
With a huge swath of Trump’s 2017 tax cuts set to expire at the end of next year, the presidential candidates are putting down markers on the issue.
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Vance warns of China’s influence during Michigan rally
Vance’s rally Tuesday was the first of a series of events in Rust Belt swing states that he and Trump are visiting this week.
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How Republicans and Democrats paint starkly different pictures of America
This summer’s conventions featured strongly diverging visions of the future — and the present.
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There’s a reason Harris’ campaign is locked in on quick fixes
The Democratic nominee isn’t campaigning much on the Biden administration’s bigger, slower-moving policies.
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Harris targets small business tax break in contrast with Trump’s corporate tax cuts
The vice president looks to beef up her economic plans ahead of next week’s debate.
Read MoreTrump says he would name Elon Musk head of government efficiency commission
Trump says he would name Elon Musk head of government efficiency commission
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Trump's Wall Street pitch: Punishing tariffs, low taxes, 'explosive' growth
Trump arrived in New York amid growing concerns among some investors about his economic plans as Harris casts his agenda as a financially calamitous wishlist.
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Weed, wages and same-sex marriage: The most intriguing ballot measures that voters will decide in November
Across the U.S. in November, voters will weigh proposals on election policies, minimum wage increases and marijuana legalization.
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Vance’s media strategy takes a turn
He was Trump’s policy whisperer to key voting blocs. Now, he’s fueling rumors that Haitian immigrants in Ohio are eating cats and dogs.
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Joe Biden preps to sell the economy — to boost his legacy and help Harris
Biden is determined to convince a skeptical public that he strengthened the economy.
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Fed moves to protect weakening job market with bold rate cut
The move signals that the central bank is growing nervous about the declining labor market.
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Biden touts economic gains, acknowledges a long way to go
Interest rate cut “is not a declaration of victory, it’s a declaration of progress.”
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Harris dismisses Trump as ‘not serious’ on the economy in MSNBC interview
It was her first solo interview with a national network as the Democratic presidential nominee.
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Janet Yellen Defends Her Record – and Delivers a Warning
The Treasury secretary is defending her legacy — and warning that the stability of the U.S. economy is at stake.
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How bond investors soured on France
When Michel Barnier, France’s new prime minister, submits his budget to parliament on October 10th he will be doing so against a painful market backdrop. A fortnight ago the yield on French ten-year government debt surpassed that of Spain, suggesting that investors see the euro zone’s second-largest economy as riskier than its southern neighbour’s (see […]
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A tonne of public debt is never made public
How much money has Senegal borrowed? More than previously thought, according to Ousmane Sonko, who became its prime minister in April. At a press conference on September 26th he said the previous government had “lied to the people” by hiding loans worth 10% of GDP, enough to push the country’s public debt to 83% of […]
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Why economic warfare nearly always misses its target
There is no such thing as a strategic commodity
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Can Andrea Orcel, Europe’s star banker, create a super-bank?
The career of Andrea Orcel vividly encapsulates the recent history of European banking. At Merrill Lynch, now part of Bank of America, Mr Orcel advised on deals that formed part of the wave of mergers that crested in 2007, when a pan-European troika bought ABN AMRO, a Dutch lender. After the financial crisis of 2007-09, […]
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Xi Jinping’s belated stimulus has reset the mood in Chinese markets
If Chinese retail investors had their way they would forgo the seven-day National Day holiday that ends on October 7th. An aggressive stimulus package, announced in Beijing on September 24th, has unleashed the biggest stockmarket rally the country has witnessed in more than 15 years. Major indices have soared more than 25%; the Shanghai stock […]
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The house-price supercycle is just getting going
After THE financial crisis of 2007-09, global house prices fell by 6% in real terms. But, before long, they picked up again, and sailed past their pre-crisis peak. When covid-19 struck, economists reckoned a property crash was on the way. In fact there was a boom, with mask-wearing house-hunters fighting over desirable nests. And then […]
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Why is Canada’s economy falling behind America’s?
CANADA AND America’s economies are joined at the hip. Some $2bn of trade and 400,000 people cross their 9,000km of shared border every day. Canadians on the west coast do more day trips to nearby Seattle than to distant Toronto. No wonder, then, that the two economies have largely moved in lockstep in recent decades: […]
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How lower American interest rates will boost Africa
Egypt is gearing up to return to international debt markets for the first time in three years. Last week Ahmed Kouchouk, the country’s finance minister, is reported to have told investors that his government is hoping to raise around $3bn in external debt over the coming months. Much of this borrowing will take the form […]
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Is the world sleepwalking into another gas crisis?
Prices could once again spike this winter
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At last, China pulls the trigger on a bold stimulus package
TWO GUT instincts have distinguished the macroeconomic policies of Xi Jinping, China’s ruler since 2012. He has disdained consumer handouts, which he thinks breed laziness. And he has refrained from bold economic stimulus, the kind of fiscal and monetary “bazooka” that China’s previous leaders fired in November 2008 during the global financial crisis. Both of […]
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A Wall Street state of mind has captured America
Downtown New York is quieter than ever. Finance has never been louder
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Why the Federal Reserve is split on the future of interest rates
A single dissent on the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate committee garnered plenty of attention last week. Understandably so. It marked the first time since 2005 that a Fed governor had opposed a rate decision. Michelle Bowman’s disagreement highlighted concerns that a half-percentage-point cut might be excessive for an economy yet to vanquish inflation. Nevertheless, her 11 […]
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China’s central bank tries to save the economy
As China’s economy has descended into deflation, the central bank’s lack of urgency has been a source of frustration. Officials at the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) at first expressed confidence that deflation was, so to speak, transitory. When it persisted, they worried less about falling prices than about the side-effects of fighting them. They […]
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Can Israel’s economy survive an all-out war with Hizbullah?
Israel’s economy should have been trundling towards recovery. After all, many of the 300,000 workers who left their jobs to fight have now returned to offices, factories and farms. Instead, a difficult situation is becoming ever more acute. GDP growth came to just 0.7% between April and June, on an annualised basis, some 5.2 percentage […]
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China’s central bank tries to save the economy—and the stockmarket
As China’s economy has descended into deflation, the central bank’s lack of urgency has been a source of frustration. Officials at the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) at first expressed confidence that deflation was, so to speak, transitory. When it persisted, they worried less about falling prices than about the side-effects of fighting them. They […]
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Governments are bigger than ever. They are also more useless
You may sense that governments are not as competent as they once were. Upon entering the White House in 2021, President Joe Biden promised to revitalise American infrastructure. In fact, spending on things like roads and rail has fallen. A flagship plan to expand access to fast broadband for rural Americans has so far helped […]
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What the history of money tells you about crypto’s future
The thread from shipwrecks and sheep flocks to digital currencies
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European regulators are about to become more political
Europe’s tough competition policy is something of a historical accident. After the second world war Germany wanted to contain cartels, which it viewed as a threat to its young democracy and market economy. France, meanwhile, saw cracking down on big firms as a way to promote its economic interests. Messy negotiations ended up handing lots […]
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The world’s poorest countries have experienced a brutal decade
Why has development ground to a halt?
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Why the Federal Reserve has gambled on a big interest-rate cut
The Federal Reserve’s decision to lower interest rates by half a percentage point, announced on September 18th, is momentous for two reasons. As the first cut by America’s central bank since it jacked up rates to quell inflation, it marks the start of a monetary-easing cycle. It also represents a bet by the Fed that […]
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The Federal Reserve’s interest-rate cuts may disappoint investors
The longed-for moment is almost here. For two and a half years, ever since America’s Federal Reserve embarked on its fastest series of interest-rate rises since the 1980s, investors have been desperate for any hint of when it would reverse course. Now it would be a huge surprise if Jerome Powell, the central bank’s chair, […]
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How China’s communists fell in love with privatisation
On a recent visit to his hometown of Laixi, in eastern China, Guo Ping received a shock: the local government had sold off a number of state-owned assets, including two reservoirs. The small city’s finances, as well as those in the neighbouring port of Qingdao, were under strain, forcing officials to come up with new […]
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China’s government is surprisingly redistributive
When China’s ruler, Xi Jinping, began calling for “common prosperity” in 2021, he made investors nervous. The stated goal was to reduce inequality. But the term became wrapped up with something edgier: a morale-destroying campaign to browbeat billionaires into displays of charity, tighten regulations on big tech firms and curb what Mr Xi called the […]
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Why orange juice has never been more expensive
Mimosas have a simple recipe: one part champagne, one part orange juice. Soon, though, the tipple may be even less affordable—and not because sparkling wine is ever more expensive. Concentrate orange-juice futures in New York, which soft-drink producers use to hedge against price swings, have quadrupled since late 2021. They hit an intraday high of […]
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Can bonds keep beating stocks?
After a terrible couple of months for shareholders, lenders are feeling smug
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An American sovereign-wealth fund is a risky idea
Not long ago America’s main concern with sovereign-wealth funds was how to regulate these large pools of money controlled by foreign governments. Now, seemingly overnight, the hot new idea in Washington, DC, is that America should join the club. It is easy to understand the allure. A well-managed SWF can, in theory, let the government […]
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Norway’s weak currency presents a mystery
The country’s economy is thriving yet the krone is becoming less and less valuable. What’s going on?
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Strangely, America’s companies will soon face higher interest rates
Between early 2022 and mid-2023 the Federal Reserve tightened monetary policy at the fastest pace since the early 1980s, lifting America’s policy interest rate from 0-0.25% to 5.25-5%. When the central bank’s policymakers next meet on September 17th and 18th, they will almost certainly start cutting rates. Investors even wonder whether they will begin with […]
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Can anything spark Europe’s economy back to life?
Europe has at last realised it has a problem with economic growth. Duh. Can it now find a solution? A report published on September 9th by Mario Draghi, a former president of the European Central Bank and prime minister of Italy, and the continent’s unofficial chief technocrat, is an attempt to do just that. Over […]
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Why Oasis fans should welcome price-gouging
The hotly anticipated comeback of a 1990s British legend sold out fast. Fans took to social media to complain. “Poor effort and a load of hype,” wrote one. “What a shitshow,” added another. “Anyone else loving the chaos?” asked an amused onlooker. To celebrate its 30th birthday, St. John, a restaurant that pioneered modern British […]
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America has a huge deficit. Which candidate would make it worse?
Enough policies have been proposed to make a call
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China is suffering from a crisis of confidence
China’s leaders have ambitious plans for the country’s economy, spanning one, five and even 15 years. In order to fulfil their goals, they know they will have to drum up prodigious amounts of manpower, materials and technology. But there is one vital input China’s leaders have recently struggled to procure: confidence.
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Has social media broken the stockmarket?
That is the contention of Cliff Asness, one of the great quant investors
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As stock prices fall, investors prepare for an autumn chill
Investors returning from summer holidays might feel dispirited upon checking their portfolios. Stocks have had a poor start to September. America’s benchmark S&P 500 index dropped by 2% on its first day of trading. European shares followed suit on September 4th; those in Japan have fallen by even more. It is a striking change from […]
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Will the Fed factor turbocharge commodity prices?
When commodity prices move in tandem, it is usually because real-world events jolt markets. China is the world’s biggest consumer of raw materials, so its economic leaps and stumbles matter. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine hindered the trade of fuels and grains, causing prices to surge. But every once in a while it is news in […]
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Inflation is down and a recession is unlikely. What went right?
A few years ago, nobody thought that a soft landing was possible
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Are American rents rigged by algorithms?
That is what Department of Justice prosecutors allege
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The plasma trade is becoming ever-more hypocritical
An unusual sort of business will soon open in Shelby, North Carolina. It will take over premises previously run by a flooring company, tucked in beside shops selling clothes, paint and fast food. But it will not sell anything itself. Instead, willing donors, paid around $40 a pop, will sit connected to an apheresis machine. […]
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Can Japan’s zombie bond market be brought back to life?
Ueda Kazuo begins on a dangerous mission
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How Vladimir Putin hopes to transform Russian trade
Vladimir Putin is spending big on his war in Ukraine. The Russian president has disbursed over $200bn, or 10% of GDP, on the invasion, according to America’s Department of Defence. He now plans to invest heavily in infrastructure that will enable his country’s economy to flourish even while cut off from the West. Over the […]
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Vast government debts are riskier than they appear
At the annual gathering of central bankers in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, attendees enjoy R&R: research and recreation. The latter usually involves a pleasant hike by the lake, but last year a rainstorm soaked the assembled economists. When they returned on August 23rd a remarkably accurate weather forecast helped them dodge a shower and enjoy some […]
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America’s anti-price-gouging laws are too minor to be communist
No matter what critics of Kamala Harris allege
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Jerome Powell (almost) declares victory over inflation
For economists and investors accustomed to staring at charts, the jagged peaks of the Teton mountains possess more than a passing resemblance to financial trend lines. They also form the backdrop to one of the year’s most keenly awaited central-bank speeches: annual reflections by the chair of the Federal Reserve at a conference hall in […]
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Is America already in recession?
An early-warning system for recessions would be worth trillions of dollars. Governments could dole out stimulus at just the right time; investors could turn a nice profit. Unfortunately, the process for calling a recession is too slow to be useful. America’s arbiter, the National Bureau of Economic Research, can take months to decide. Other countries simply […]
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Why investors are not buying Europe’s revival
Even though the continent’s stocks are in a “sweet spot”
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Investors should avoid a new generation of rip-off ETFs
John Bogle, founder of the Vanguard Group and pioneer of index funds, may have saved investors more money than anyone else in history. By some estimates, his crusade to drive down fees has, over the past five decades, left them with more than $1trn that would otherwise have gone to fund managers. Index funds, through […]
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Why don’t women use artificial intelligence?
Be more productive. That is how ChatGPT, a generative-artificial-intelligence tool from OpenAI, sells itself to workers. But despite industry hopes that the technology will boost productivity across the workforce, not everyone is on board. According to two recent studies, women use ChatGPT between 16 and 20 percentage points less than their male peers, even when […]
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Kamala Harris’s cost-of-living plan will end in failure
It is easy enough to understand what is motivating Kamala Harris’s economic strategy. Poll after poll demonstrates that many Americans consider the cost of living to be their main concern heading into the election in November, and Ms Harris starts on the back foot, having served as vice-president during a time when inflation soared to […]
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Artificial intelligence is losing hype
Silicon Valley’s tech bros are having a difficult few weeks. A growing number of investors worry that artificial intelligence (AI) will not deliver the vast profits they seek. Since peaking last month the share prices of Western firms driving the ai revolution have dropped by 15%. A growing number of observers now question the limitations […]
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Why companies get inflation wrong
Over the past year-and-a-half inflation has fallen sharply across the rich world. Although some central banks have now begun to cut interest rates, few are yet ready to pat themselves on the back for a job well done. In many countries the core rate of inflation, excluding volatile energy and food prices, remains uncomfortably high—at […]
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How vulnerable is Israel to sanctions?
The outcry was immediate. On August 11th Itamar Ben-Gvir, Israel’s minister of national security, said that his country could permanently occupy the Gaza Strip. “Sanctions,” Josep Borrell, the EU’s foreign-policy chief, hit back, “must be on the agenda”. It was unclear whether Mr Borrell meant they would be placed on Mr Ben-Gvir or Israel itself; […]
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Europe’s economic growth is extremely fragile
When an economy contracts for two consecutive quarters, it is often considered to be in recession. European policymakers will be hoping that two consecutive quarters of growth are equally notable. Data released on August 14th showed that, in the second quarter of the year, the EU’s economy once again grew by 0.3% against the previous […]
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What is behind China’s perplexing bond-market intervention?
Many governments live in fear of bond-market “vigilantes”, investors who punish errant policies by aggressively selling the sovereign’s debt, driving down its price and thereby pushing up its yield. Financial regulators also worry about bond-market malfunctions, such as unsettled trades, when one party to a transaction fails to honour its promises. These mishaps can send […]
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How to invest in chaotic markets
Just ignore it. That, in short, is the advice given to retail investors when stockmarkets convulse, as plenty have over the past few weeks. Watching hard-earned savings disappear in a flash tends not to promote a cool head. So do not check your portfolio, do not tot up your losses and, above all, do not […]
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Vladimir Putin spends big—and sends Russia’s economy soaring
Across the world worries are mounting about the economy. In America and Canada unemployment is rising, while consumer sentiment remains depressed. Europe continues to flirt with recession. Don’t even mention China. Yet there is one place where the mood is quite different. Despite fierce sanctions and pariah status, Russia’s economy is growing strongly. It turns […]
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The Big Mac index: where to buy a cheap hamburger
Meat-eaters may want to avoid Argentina
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How Chinese shoppers downgraded their ambition
“Even those born poor fear the heat.” This slogan, printed on a lemonade from Mixue, a drinks-and-ice-cream chain, says a lot about Chinese consumption. The beverage has been a wild success during a heatwave sweeping the country, less for its tart, refreshing properties than for its price. A cup sells for as little as 3.6 […]
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Why Warren Buffett has built a mighty cash mountain
No investor commands attention quite like Warren Buffett. As boss of Berkshire Hathaway, an investment firm that he has run for almost six decades, Mr Buffett’s every movement is scrutinised. When he shifts in his seat, investors large and small ponder what it might mean for their portfolios.
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Africa’s two most populous economies brave tough reforms
When times are tough, politicians reach for metaphors. In Ethiopia, which floated its currency and entered a $3.4bn IMF programme on July 29th, the prime minister Abiy Ahmed (pictured) compared reform to “the pain of surgery, endured for healing”. In Nigeria Bola Tinubu, the president, has defended two devaluations, saying the old system was “a […]
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A global recession is not in prospect
A weak jobs report in America has raised fears that the world’s largest economy is heading for recession. America’s stockmarkets have tumbled, with fear spreading to other countries. Japan’s Topix index is 15% off its recent high; Germany’s main index is down by 7%. When America sneezes, everywhere catches a cold.
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Investors beware: summer madness is here
This year’s hottest months are shaping up to be especially wild
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The stockmarket rout may not be over
For a while on August 5th things were looking awful. During the Asian trading session Japan’s benchmark Topix share index had fallen by 12%, marking its worst day since 1987. Stock prices in South Korea and Taiwan had tanked by 9% and 8% respectively, and European markets were falling. Before trading began in America, the […]
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Why Japanese stocks are on a rollercoaster ride
As fears of an American recession spread, stockmarkets around the world have been jittery. The moves have been the wildest of all in Japan. On August 5th the Topix plunged by 12% in its worst performance since 1987; the yen had climbed from its weakest point in 37 years. The next day, stocks swung back, […]
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Why Japanese markets have plummeted
As fears of an American recession spread, stockmarkets around the world have suffered. But none has taken as severe a beating as Japan’s. On August 5th the Topix plunged by 12% in its worst performance since 1987, compared with falls of 2-3% in America, Britain and Europe. The index is now almost a quarter below its peak, reached […]
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Can Kamala Harris win on the economy?
Kamala Harris has all but erased Donald Trump’s polling lead in America’s six swing states, which is testament to the excitement generated by her late entrance into the presidential race. On August 6th she will speak at a rally in Pennsylvania, the most crucial of the swing states, alongside her new running-mate, who may well be […]
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Swing-state economies are doing just fine
They would be doing even better if the Biden-Harris administration had been more cynical
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EU handouts have long been wasteful. Now they must be fixed
Budget talks in the European Union are a game of 27-dimensional chess. Members play simultaneously against one another, negotiating over many spending items at any one time. Countries are already preparing for the contest that starts next year, which is likely to be particularly dramatic. The world around the EU has shifted, owing to the […]
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Gary Gensler is the most controversial man in American finance
How many Securities and Exchange Commission chairs can you name? Even in Washington it is hard to imagine a passer-by being able to come up with more than one. Perhaps the best known is Joe Kennedy, the sec’s first chairman, who took office during the Depression when Americans had lost faith in markets and were […]
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Which cities have the worst overtourism problem?
Cities everywhere are busy implementing measures to deter excess tourism. But most people agree holidaymakers offer an economic bounty. So what would the ideal tourist market look like? Residents would probably prefer a small number of high-spending visitors, to minimise disturbance and maximise revenues. Figures compiled by The Economist rank 20 popular destinations on their […]
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Why fear is sweeping markets everywhere
How quickly the mood turns. Barely a fortnight ago stockmarkets were on a seemingly unstoppable bull run, after months of hitting new all-time highs. Now they are in free fall. America’s Nasdaq 100 index, dominated by the tech giants that were at the heart of the boom, has fallen by more than 10% since a […]
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new business, finance and economics interns
We are seeking promising journalists and would-be journalists to apply for our Marjorie Deane internship. Successful candidates will spend six months with us in London writing about finance and economics or business, and will be paid. We are looking to hire at least two interns over the next year. The start date is flexible and […]
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India’s economic policy will not make it rich
The developing world has fallen back in love with economic planning. As protectionism sweeps the West, poor countries are no longer afraid of industrial policy—or bold ambition. India’s government declares that manufacturing will propel the country to high-income status by 2047. Indonesia wants to get there by 2050, with growth driven by green commodities. Vietnam […]
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China’s last boomtowns show rapid growth is still possible
China’s economic miracle emerged from dozens of industrial entrepots. Dongguan, famous for producing furniture and toys, as well as its many brothels, witnessed GDP growth of 21% in 2004. Hohhot, a town on the edge of the Mongolian steppe, posted nominal growth of 18% in 2006 as it scarred its mineral-rich terrain with mines. Shanghai, […]
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The war on tourism is often self-harming
Cooling off is easy in Barcelona. Swim in the sea, sip sangria—or just hang about looking like a holidaymaker. Recently residents have taken part in anti-tourist protests, some firing at guests with water pistols. Other rallies calling for an end to mass tourism have taken place across the Balearic and Canary Islands. And it is […]
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Donald Trump wants a weaker dollar. What are his options?
All come with their own drawbacks
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Revisiting the work of Donald Harris, father of Kamala
In a video clip that has gone viral recently, Kamala Harris quotes her mother asking her whether she thought she had just fallen out of a coconut tree. The probable Democratic nominee for president breaks into a laugh at the turn of phrase before explaining, somewhat philosophically, the message of the story: “you exist in […]
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Why investors are unwise to bet on elections
To meet the world’s biggest news junkies, head not to Washington or Westminster. Instead, make your way to a trading floor, where information from every corner of the globe must be parsed the instant it emerges. Whatever the news, from coups to company-earnings reports, it probably affects the price of something. This year, amid a […]
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Why is Xi Jinping building secret commodity stockpiles?
Vast new holdings of grain, natural gas and oil suggest trouble ahead
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How Vladimir Putin created a housing bubble
Mortgages used to be a tough sell in Russia. Decades of Soviet propaganda, which denounced credit as an unbearable burden, had an effect. Even after the end of communism, Russians still referred to mortgages as “debt slavery”, preferring to save until they could buy their homes outright. Vladimir Putin, the country’s president, has spent two […]
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The rich world revolts against sky-high immigration
Immigrants are increasingly unwelcome. Over half of Americans favour “deporting all immigrants living in the US illegally back to their home country”, up from a third in 2016. Just 10% of Australians favour more immigration, a sharp fall from a few years ago. Sir Keir Starmer, Britain’s new centre-left prime minister, wants Britain to be […]
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Why investors have fallen in love with small American firms
Believe it or not, corporate America still makes room for the little guy. Around half of working Americans are employed by a firm with less than 500 workers. Nine in ten banks are community institutions that hold less than $10bn in assets. This rather parochial picture, however, is not reflected in the country’s stockmarket, where […]
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Americans are wrong to wish for an era of stable bipartisanship
America’s stability can no longer be taken for granted. That is one possible conclusion from the near assassination of Donald Trump, reinforcing lessons already learned from the attack on the Capitol in January 2021. Regrettably, America is not exceptional in this regard. The past few months alone have featured a shooting of Slovakia’s prime minister, […]
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At last, Wall Street has something to cheer
Consumer banks, on the other hand, are starting to suffer
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YIMBY cities show how to build homes and contain rents
Houses in Bouldin Creek, a neighbourhood in Austin, Texas, are cavernous, but occupy only a small portion of their plots. Rules known as the “McMansion ordinance”, intended to preserve the area’s character, ensure there is plenty of space between them. Architects must squeeze the design of any new home into an imaginary tent rising five […]
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YIMBY cities show how to build homes and lower rents
Houses in Bouldin Creek, a neighbourhood in Austin, Texas, are cavernous, but occupy only a small portion of their plots. Rules known as the “McMansion ordinance”, intended to preserve the area’s character, ensure there is plenty of space between them. Architects must squeeze the design of any new home into an imaginary tent rising five […]
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Stocks are on an astonishing run. Yet threats lurk
We assess what could bring the bull market to an end
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China’s leaders face miserable economic-growth figures
The Jingxi Hotel in Beijing is known for its home-made yogurt—and for hosting some of the most important meetings in the history of the Chinese Communist Party. They include the “third plenum” of 1978, which confirmed Deng Xiaoping’s rise to power and the opening of the Chinese economy. The country’s leaders are now gathering for […]
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Trumponomics would not be as bad as most expect
In markets it is known as the “Trump trade”, a bet that Donald Trump’s return to the White House would herald more inflation and higher interest rates. Many of Mr Trump’s core policies push in this direction: tariffs would add to import costs, deportations of immigrants could push up wages and deficit-financed tax cuts would […]
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Betting markets are useful when politics is chaotic
In the early 20th century, for brief periods, the most frenetic American trading pits were not the raucous markets in which stocks were traded, nor the venues where bonds were exchanged. The real action was in the market for betting on the next president. “Crowds formed in the financial district…and brokers would call out bid […]
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Europe prepares for a mighty trade war
“We cannot carry on trade without war, nor war without trade,” wrote Jan Pieterszoon Coen, a brutal governor-general of the Dutch East India Company, to shareholders in 1614. Four centuries later, things sound a bit different. “Let’s make no mistake: assertiveness is a prerequisite for keeping our markets open,” says Sabine Weyand, the EU’s top […]
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The dangerous rise of pension nationalism
Rachel Reeves, Britain’s new chancellor, says that she has inherited the worst fiscal circumstances since the second world war. An exaggeration, perhaps, but only a small one. To address the squeeze, Ms Reeves will seek the help of Britain’s retirement savings. On July 8th she said that she wants the country’s pension funds “to drive […]
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Xi Jinping really is unshakeably committed to the private sector
China’s paramount leader, Xi Jinping, contains multitudes. His economic philosophy touts both self-reliance and openness. His vision of policymaking embraces top-down design, but also bottom-up experimentation. During the covid-19 pandemic, he urged local officials to eliminate infections (which often required lockdowns) and promote growth (which required mobility). His recent call to cultivate “new productive forces” […]
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How strongmen abuse tools for fighting financial crime
In May 27 members of the Community Empowerment Resource Network (CERNET), a Philippine charity, were charged with bankrolling communist rebels. Straight away the case looked strange. A social-media post by police claimed they had jailed Estrella Flores-Catarata, one of CERNET’s associates, who received an award from the UN for her work with indigenous people last […]
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America’s banks are more exposed to a downturn than they appear
The earliest depiction of the ouroboros—a serpent coiled in a circle, eating its own tail—was found in the tomb of Tutankhamun, a pharaoh who ruled Egypt around 1320BC. It was used in his funerary texts to depict the infinite nature of time, and later cropped up all over the place. In Ancient Rome it signified […]
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How much cash should be removed from the financial system?
The world is still, in a sense, swimming in cash. Or at least the electronic equivalent: central-bank reserves. The Bank for International Settlements (BIS), a club of central banks, estimates that the balance-sheets of rich-country central banks amount to roughly 50% of collective GDP. That is down from 70% in 2021—a reduction which reflects quantitative […]
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How Starbucks caffeinates local economies
Starbucks offers endless opportunities for innovation. Parts of social media delight in hacking the chain’s menu to create highly instagrammable drinks. Fancy a “cake batter Frappuccino”? Simply order a “vanilla bean crème Frappuccino”, add a pump of hazelnut syrup and ask the barista to put a cake pop in the blender. How about some “liquid […]
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Why Chinese banks are now vanishing
The savings and loan (S&L) crisis terrorised America’s banks for years. Starting in the mid-1980s, a mix of aggressive lending growth, poor risk controls and a property downturn contributed to the collapse or consolidation of over 1,000 small lending institutions. China’s smallest banks are now suffering from many of the same ailments. But until recently […]
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What happened to the artificial-intelligence revolution?
Move to San Francisco and it is hard not to be swept up by mania over artificial intelligence (AI). Advertisements tell you about how the tech will revolutionise your workplace. In bars people speculate about when the world will “get AGI”, or when machines will become more advanced than humans. The five big tech firms—Alphabet, […]
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Ukraine has a month to avoid default
War is still exacting a heavy toll on Ukraine’s economy. The country’s GDP is a quarter smaller than on the eve of Vladimir Putin’s invasion, the central bank is tearing through foreign reserves and Russia’s recent attacks on critical infrastructure have depressed growth forecasts. “Strong armies,” warned Sergii Marchenko, Ukraine’s finance minister, on June 17th, […]
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American stocks are consuming global markets
Sixteen years ago American stockmarkets reached their modern nadir. During the early 2000s European and emerging-market equities went on a bull run. By March 2008 America had entered recession and its financial crisis was under way. The country’s stocks accounted for less than 40% of the world’s total stockmarket capitalisation. Fast-forward to today and things […]
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How Chinese goods dodge American tariffs
Queues of idle trucks trying to enter America are standard fare at Mexico’s border. Recently, however, vehicles at the Otay Mesa crossing, which separates California and the city of Tijuana, have been lining up to get into Mexico. The trucks do not travel far—they offload their shipping containers in newly built warehouses just 15km south […]
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Is coal the new gold?
From some angles it seems as if thermal coal, the world’s dirtiest fuel, is having a tough year. Prices are down a bit. China, which gobbles up over half the world’s supply, is in economic trouble; a surge in hydropower generation there is squeezing out the fuel. In May G7 members agreed to phase out […]
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The economics of the tennis v pickleball contest
Which is the greatest rivalry in tennis? Older players might reminisce about the “fire and ice” contests between the cool-headed Bjorn Borg and the tempestuous John McEnroe; those a generation younger might rave about the all-American duels between Andre Agassi and Pete Sampras. After a two-decade-long era dominated by rivalries between Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal […]
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what a price war means for inflation
In the cartoon “SpongeBob SquarePants”, Mr Krabs, purveyor of krabby patty hamburgers, is a frequent and ruthless price-gouger. He can get away with it since he has no competition, save for the unappetising Chum Bucket. McDonald’s, a fast-food chain that flips real-world hamburgers, can only dream of Mr Krabs’s pricing power. It has been forced […]
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Will services make the world rich?
In April a New York fried-chicken shop went viral. It was not the food at Sansan Chicken East Village that captured the world’s imagination, but the service. Diners found an assistant from the Philippines running the till via video link. The service is provided by Happy Cashier, which connects American firms with Filipino workers. Chi […]
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Europe faces an unusual problem: ultra-cheap energy
Owing to the rapid spread of solar power, Spanish energy is increasingly cheap. Between 11am and 7pm, the sunniest hours in a sunny country, prices often loiter near zero on wholesale markets (see chart). Even in Germany, which by no reasonable definition is a sunny country, but which has plenty of wind, wholesale prices were […]
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Indian state capitalism looks to be in trouble
India’s stockmarket swooned upon the news that Narendra Modi, the country’s business-friendly prime minister, would return to power diminished and in a coalition after a recent general election. One benchmark, though, fell especially sharply and has yet to recover: the Bombay Stock Exchange’s index for Public Sector Undertakings (BSE PSU). It comprises 56 companies that […]
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America’s rich never sell their assets. How should they be taxed?
Editor’s note (June 20th 2024): The Supreme Court has ruled in Moore v United States, upholding the tax at issue (the “mandatory repatriation tax”). The court declined to weigh in on the constitutionality of a tax on unrealised gains. What is income, really? Ask an economist and they might describe “Haig-Simons” income—the value of a […]
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Is America approaching peak tip?
Things are big in America. That is true of houses, cars and food portions. Perhaps most shocking of all is the size of tips. In much of the rest of the world, gratuities are a small gesture for good service. In American restaurants they are de rigueur. And they are becoming more generous and more […]
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How bad could things get in France?
It was a French politician, Valéry Giscard d’Estaing, who coined the term “exorbitant privilege” in the 1960s. He was referring to the benefits received by America as issuer of the world’s reserve currency—namely, the ability to run high deficits comfortably. These days France is reminded that it has no such privilege. Ahead of parliamentary elections […]
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Think Nvidia looks dear? American shares could get pricier still
How can you tell it’s time to get out of the market? In 1929 Joseph Kennedy, an American businessman and politician, supposedly realised the party was over upon hearing a shoe-shine boy dispensing stock tips. In 2000 the exit doors beckoned after 17 “dotcom” firms paid millions of dollars each for brief advertising slots during […]
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Why house prices are surging once again
Is a fresh housing boom under way? In April a house-price index for the world, excluding China, rose by more than 3% year on year (see chart 1). American house prices are 6.5% higher than a year ago, Australian ones are up by 5% and Portuguese ones are soaring. In other countries, the market looks […]
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Has private credit’s golden age already ended?
The HISTORY of leveraged finance—the business of lending to risky, indebted companies—is best told in three acts. High-yield (or “junk”) bonds were the subject of the first. That ended in 1990 when Michael Milken, the godfather of this sort of debt, was sent to prison for fraud. In the second act, the extraordinary growth of […]
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Does motherhood hurt women’s pay?
Returning from his paternity leave last week, your columnist was keen to get writing. After all, numerous studies say parents’ careers can suffer after they have children. Best to immediately dispel any notion that his might do so. But then he remembered that he is a man, and went to get a coffee. For the […]
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Rumours of the trade deal’s death are greatly exaggerated
In some parts of the world, not least America’s capital, “trade” is a dirty word. Both Donald Trump and Joe Biden now champion protectionism, and neither president signed a single new trade deal. The World Trade Organisation (WTO) is a shell of its former self. So you might think that trade deals are history—but in […]
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The cracks in America’s ultra-strong labour market
It is the million-person mystery, and its solution will help determine just how strong American growth truly is. According to an official survey of employers, America’s economy has added 1.2m jobs in net terms since the start of the year. But a separate survey of households paints a completely different picture: that the country has […]
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China’s currency is not as influential as once imagined
Chinese officials seem pleased with the yuan’s recent progress as a global currency. The international monetary system is diversifying at an accelerating pace, said Pan Gongsheng, the governor of China’s central bank, in March. The yuan has become the fourth-most active currency in global payments, he noted. In trade finance, it now ranks third. And […]
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Donald Trump’s trade hawk is plotting behind bars
Ahead of America’s election in November, company bosses, financiers and diplomats are busy calling on Donald Trump’s allies, trying to divine the economic policies that the former president will pursue if he is re-elected. But there is one man in Mr Trump’s orbit who holds more sway than most and who, for now, is virtually […]
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China is distorting its stockmarket by trying to prop it up
Investors in China’s stockmarket have been doing handsomely this year. The Shanghai composite index has risen by 13% from a multi-year low in February, notwithstanding a recent drop. Equity analysts and state media alike are cheering. For Xi Jinping, China’s leader, the rally was a relief, since retail investors own at least 80% of the […]
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Why global GDP might be $7trn bigger than everyone thought
Many people have experienced the joy of finding some spare change down the back of the sofa. On May 30th the World Bank experienced something similar, if on a grander scale. After rooting around in 176 countries, it discovered almost $7trn in extra global GDP—equivalent to an extra France and a Mexico. In fact, there […]
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European banks are making heady profits in Russia
Days after Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, Raiffeisen, an Austrian bank, said it was considering selling its business in Russia. Twenty-seven months later, the lender’s unit in the country is doing rather well. Its staff has grown to nearly 10,000, a 7% rise since 2022. Last year its profit reached €1.8bn ($2bn)—more than any of […]
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Want to avoid woke stockmarket rules? List in Texas
“Equities in Dallas,” cried the traders in “Liar’s Poker”, an account by Michael Lewis of his life as a junior banker in the late 1980s. Demotion from New York to the backwater of Texas would be a humiliation. Who wants to sling shares to yokels? Times may be changing. On June 4th an upstart Texas […]
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Is America’s economy heading for a consumer crunch?
Nothing has been able to stop American consumers. At first they splashed covid-19 savings on home-exercise bicycles; now they are more likely to plump for beachside holidays. Predictions, made by bank bosses last summer, that households would be squeezed by inflation have been confounded. Instead, their outlays have powered American GDP ever higher, at a […]
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China’s economic model retains a dangerous allure
Twenty years ago Joshua Cooper Ramo, a consultant, first wrote about the “Beijing consensus”. The Washington consensus of financial liberalisation, floating currencies and openness to foreign capital was, he posited, a damaged brand. China was pioneering its own approach to development based on principles of equality, innovation and a relentless focus on sovereignty and national […]
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Why any estimate of the cost of climate change will be flawed
When William Nordhaus, who would later win a Nobel prize in economics, modelled the interaction between the economy and the atmosphere he represented the “damage function”—an estimate of harm done by an extra unit of warming—as a wiggly line. So little was known about the costs of climate change that he called it “terra incognita”, […]
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Foreign investors are rejecting Indian stocks
How to explain the disparity? India’s economy is growing astonishingly fast, Bangalore and Mumbai have become destinations for bosses of global financial firms and Narendra Modi trumpets the country’s appeal in his electoral campaign. Given the enthusiasm, surely foreign money is flooding into the country. Not quite. In April foreign investors dumped $1bn-worth of Indian […]
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Xi Jinping’s surprising new source of economic advice
What China’s leader may learn from a pair of reform-minded academics
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Young collectors are fuelling a boom in Basquiat-backed loans
Buying art can be a nerve-racking experience. But investors have long been able to console themselves with the thought that, if their purchase plummets in value, they will at least have something nice on their wall. Now they can also console themselves that they will have something to borrow against. That is because there has […]
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When to sell your stocks
Watch professionals play poker, and one of the first things to strike you is how often they fold when the game has barely begun. Rounds of Texas Hold’em, a popular variant, start with each player being dealt two cards and then deciding whether to bet on them. Amateurs are more likely to proceed than not, […]
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OPEC heavyweights are cheating on their targets
The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, a group that produces 40% of the world’s crude, wants to keep oil prices high and stable. Lately they have certainly been stable, even if not that high. Despite the recent death of Iran’s president and the escalating war in Gaza, prices of Brent […]
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Baby-boomers are loaded. Why are they so stingy?
Baby-boomers were born between 1946 and 1964—and are the luckiest generation in history. Most of the cohort, which numbers 270m across the rich world, have not fought wars. Some got to see the Beatles live. They grew up during strong economic growth. Not all are rich, but in aggregate they have amassed great wealth, owing […]
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How the Chinese state aims to calm the property market
Three decades ago much of the housing in China’s cities belonged to state-owned enterprises, which provided homes to workers at low rents. A lot has changed since then. China is now blessed, if that is the right word, with a sprawling commercial property market, which has produced vast numbers of flats and equal amounts of […]
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Brazil, India and Mexico are taking on China’s exports
At last, it seemed time for a manufacturing take-off. Having struggled to compete with China’s industrial might, other emerging markets stood ready to benefit as their rival’s labour costs surged and rising tensions between it and the West pushed firms to look for new factory locations. Last year foreign direct investment into China fell to […]
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Whoever wins, closed-end funds lose
As one of the leaders of the passive-investing revolution, BlackRock is usually a disruptive force in the financial world. But the asset-management giant’s battle with Saba Capital, an activist fund, has cast it in an unfamiliar role: as besieged incumbent. Ten of BlackRock’s investment vehicles, known as closed-end funds, are in Saba’s sights. The funds—worth […]
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Shrinking populations mean a poorer, more fractious world
If current forecasts are accurate, 2064 will be the first year in centuries when fewer babies are born than people die. Birth rates in India will fall to below the level seen in America last year. Even with immigration and successful pro-natal policies, America’s population will only have a little bit of growth left. By […]
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Can the rich world escape its baby crisis?
Governments are splurging on handouts to avert demographic catastrophe
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At long last, Europe’s economy is starting to grow
There is only one problem with the chatter about Europe’s “soft landing”: its economy never truly flew. While America’s growth has consistently amazed, Europe’s has been miserable. Exclude Ireland, where national statistics are distorted by multinational companies minimising their tax bills, and the EU’s GDP has risen by about 3% since 2019, compared with a […]
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How Jim Simons revolutionised investing
Great investors are often known by a signature style. Warren Buffett made it big by investing in companies he thought cheap and holding on for many years. George Soros bet on macroeconomic events, at one point almost breaking the Bank of England. Jim Simons, who died on May 10th at the age of 86, was […]
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Diego Maradona offers central bankers enduring lessons
Speaking in 2005, Mervyn King, then governor of the Bank of England, outlined his “Maradona theory of interest rates”. The great Argentine footballer’s performance at a World Cup match against England in 1986, Lord King argued, was the perfect illustration of how central bankers ought to conduct monetary policy. Running 60 yards from inside his […]
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Narendra Modi’s flagship growth scheme is off to a sluggish start
In the early 1990s India abandoned the principles of swadeshi, or self-sufficiency, that had guided its policies since independence. Subsidies were scrapped; import levies tumbled. By 2014 the average tariff had fallen to 13%, from 125% in 1991. Over the same period, exports soared. Yet the country’s exports remain a little lopsided for the tastes […]
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The property firm that could break China’s back
Land in Shenzhen, China’s southern technology hub, is scarce. Plots in years past have grabbed sky-high prices. But when Vanke, one of the country’s largest property firms, puts 19,000 square metres of land up for sale on May 18th, it will do so at a discount of 900m yuan ($125m), or 29%, on the price […]
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Biden outdoes Trump with ultra-high China tariffs
Just over six years ago, when Donald Trump first announced tariffs on Chinese goods, it was as if a bomb had gone off. American stocks fell sharply at the prospect of a trade war, businesses warned of blowback and economists lined up to decry the move. Such is the protectionist mood in Washington now that […]
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How Ukrainian farmers are using the cover of war to escape taxes
Since Russia began its invasion in 2022, Ukraine’s economy has shrunk by a quarter. But the ravages of war are not the only reason for the government’s reduced tax take. Businesses are also making use of the chaos to dodge paying their fair share. This is particularly true in agriculture, which before the war was […]
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America is in the midst of an extraordinary startup boom
Pearls, it is said, represent purity. They may soon stand for something else: business dynamism. In Greenville, South Carolina, two locals have created earrings that look like jewels, but contain a cluster of microelectronics to track body temperature, heart rate and even the wearer’s menstrual cycle. Incora Health was established in 2022. It plans to […]
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What would get China’s consumers spending?
On a regular Tuesday morning, a large crowd has gathered outside a grocery store in Xuchang, a city of 4m people. Visit Pangdonglai at the weekend and things are even busier. Thousands, some having travelled hundreds of kilometres, arrive before dawn to take their place in a queue that snakes back and forth in front […]
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What Xi Jinping gets wrong about China’s economy
The EU is no stranger to overcapacity. Its economic landscape once featured butter mountains, milk lakes and other landmarks of excess production—the surreal results of its common agricultural policy, which guaranteed high prices to dairy farmers. Thus the president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, knew what she was talking about when she […]
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Why the global cocoa market is melting down
BARRY CALLEBAUT, the world’s largest maker of bulk chocolate, is full of beans. Its share price has jumped by 20% since April, when it reported higher sales volumes despite a steep rise in the cost of cocoa. Peter Feld, its boss, told investors not to worry about expensive ingredients: “What goes up fast comes down […]
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Against expectations, European banks are thriving
In 2020, when BBVA and Sabadell abandoned merger discussions, it was difficult to find investors with anything positive to say about European banks. A decade of near-zero interest rates, stiff regulation and anaemic economic growth had made them unprofitable and unattractive. The two Spanish lenders were no exception. BBVA had a market value of €26bn […]
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