Banks, at least, are making money from a turbulent world
Working on a trading desk is perhaps the closest an office job can get to a sport. Focus and reflexes matter. On the other side of every trill of the phone or ding from a computer is a client who wants to trade. If ignored, they will hang up and call a competitor. Everyone is […]
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Could America and its allies club together to weaken the dollar?
The Plaza Hotel has New York glamour in spades. Sitting at a corner of Central Park, it was the setting for “Home Alone 2”, a film that came out in 1992 in which a child finds himself lost in the metropolis. He takes up residence in one of the hotel’s suites, thanks to his father’s […]
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How Ukrainians are using the cover of war to escape taxes
Since Russia invaded in 2022, Ukraine’s economy has shrunk by a quarter. But the ravages of war are not the only reason for the government’s reduced tax take. Businesses are also making use of the chaos to dodge paying their fair share. This is particularly true in agriculture, which before the war was responsible for […]
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Russia’s gas business will never recover from the war in Ukraine
When Russia’s leaders stopped most of the country’s gas deliveries to the EU in 2022, they thought themselves smart. Prices instantly shot up, enabling Russia to earn more despite lower export volumes. Meanwhile, Europe, which bought 40% of its gas from Russia in 2021, braced itself for inflation and blackouts. Yet two years later, owing […]
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Hedge funds make billions as India’s options market goes ballistic
Hedge funds take great pains to hide their inner workings. So a recent court case in which Jane Street sued two former employees and Millennium Management, another fund to which they had jumped ship, was immensely pleasing to the firm’s rivals, since it offered a rare view into one of the industry’s giants. Among the […]
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What campus protesters get wrong about divestment
One-third of Ivy League graduates end up working in finance or consulting. So perhaps it is unsurprising that campus protesters are providing investment advice: they want university endowments to get rid of assets linked to Israel. At Columbia University, for instance, a coalition of more than 100 student organisations is demanding that administrators divest from […]
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Working from home and the US-Europe divide
When it comes to economic growth, America comfortably beats Europe. Many factors have fed America’s outperformance, from tech innovation to vast oil reserves. But there is one explanation that seems almost too simplistic: that “Americans just work harder”, as the head of Norway’s oil fund put it in an interview with the Financial Times on […]
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Immigration is surging, with big economic consequences
The West faces an unprecedented number of new arrivals
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How American politics has infected investing
The hedge fund’s branding is a clue. 1789 Capital was set up last year and named for the year Congress proposed America’s bill of rights. It offers investors the chance to put money into what it says are three key themes: a parallel conservative economy catering to consumers who want to avoid being bombarded with […]
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China’s better economic growth hides reasons to worry
When China’s leaders set an economic-growth target of “around” 5% for this year, the goal was universally described as ambitious. Now the country looks increasingly likely to meet it. Several foreign banks, including Citigroup, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, have recently raised their forecasts. Figures released on April 16th showed the economy grew by 5.3% […]
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Would America dare to bring down a Chinese bank?
If any politician has the demeanour to ease tensions with Beijing, it is Janet Yellen. America’s treasury secretary comes across as a twinkly eyed professor, rather than a foreign-policy hawk. Sure enough, she used a recent trip to China, which ended on April 9th, to praise the “stronger footing” that Sino-American relations are now on […]
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What China’s central bank and Costco shoppers have in common
Gold has always held an allure. The earliest civilisations used it for jewellery; the first forms of money were forged from it. For centuries kings clamoured to get their hands on the stuff. Charlemagne conquered much of Europe after plundering vast amounts of gold from the Avars. When King Ferdinand of Spain sent explorers to […]
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When will Americans see those interest-rate cuts?
Perhaps it was always too good to be true. The big economic story of 2023 was the seemingly painless disinflation in America, with consumer price pressures receding even as growth remained resilient, which underpinned surging stock prices. Alas, the story thus far in 2024 is not quite so cheerful. Growth has remained robust but, partly […]
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Welcome to an artificial-intelligence Utopia
In “Permutation City”, a novel by Greg Egan, the character Peer, having achieved immortality within a virtual reality over which he has total control, finds himself terribly bored. So he engineers himself to have new passions. One moment he is pushing the boundaries of higher mathematics; the next he is writing operas. “He’d even been […]
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How to build a global currency
Seventy years ago the Indian rupee was often found a long way from home. After India gained independence from Britain, the currency remained in use in sheikhdoms across the Arabian Sea. Until as late as 1970, some employed the Gulf rupee, a currency issued by India’s central bank. Today the picture is rather different. The […]
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Wanted: a new economics writer
We are hiring a writer on economics, ideally based at first in London. Journalistic experience is not necessary. The ability to write clearly and entertainingly is crucial. So is a thorough understanding of economics and a capacity to work with data. The ideal candidate would have an interest in the economics of innovation and technology, […]
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How Xi Jinping plans to overtake America
Last year Xi Jinping, China’s leader, paid a visit to Heilongjiang in the country’s north-east. Part of China’s industrial rustbelt, the province exemplifies the problems besetting China’s economy. Its birth rate is the lowest in the country. House prices in its biggest city are falling. The province’s GDP grew by only 2.6% in 2023. Worse, […]
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How to trade an election
Investors differ in their approach to elections. Some see politics as an edge to exploit; others as noise to block out. Even for those without a financial interest, markets offer a brutally frank perspective on the economic stakes. As elections approach in America and Britain, as well as plenty of other countries, that is especially […]
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Bitcoin’s price is surging. What happens next?
For a brief moment, everyone who owned bitcoin had made money from it. On March 5th the crypto token rose to an all-time high of just above $69,000—a level sure to delight the meme-loving crypto-crowd—before slipping back a little. The record capped a remarkable comeback from the dark days of November 2022, when interest-rate rises […]
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The Economist’s finance and economics internship
The Economist is seeking promising journalists and would-be journalists to apply for the 2024 Marjorie Deane internship. The successful candidate will spend six months with us in London writing about finance and economics, and receive payment. No previous experience is required. Applicants are asked to send a cv and an original article of no more […]
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Can Israel afford to wage war?
In the next few weeks, Binyamin Netanyahu, Israel’s prime minister, hopes to gain final parliamentary approval for an emergency war budget. It includes more cash for settlers in the West Bank, as well as for religious schools, where teenagers study the Torah rather than science—part of an attempt to unite his fissiparous political coalition. But […]
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What do you do with 191bn frozen euros owned by Russia?
In economic terms, an asset has value because an owner might derive future benefits from it. Some assets, like cryptocurrencies, require a collective belief in those benefits. Others, like wine, will undeniably provide future pleasure, such as the ability to savour a 1974 Château Margaux. Still others, like American treasuries, represent a claim on the […]
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As the Nikkei 225 hits record highs, Japan’s young start investing
Saito Mari, a 28-year-old nurse, was frustrated. Her pay, at just ¥160,000 ($1,100) a month, was meagre; after bills, rent, shopping and a few holidays, she had little left over. So in 2020 she decided to buy some stocks. “I used to think it was too risky,” says Ms Saito, who learned about investing via […]
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Should you put all your savings into stocks?
Less than two months of 2024 have passed, but the year has already been a pleasing one for stockmarket investors. The S&P 500 index of big American companies is up by 6%, and has passed 5,000 for the first time ever, driven by a surge in enthusiasm for tech giants, such as Meta and Nvidia. […]
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Is working from home about to spark a financial crisis?
In midtown manhattan reminders of commercial property’s difficulties are everywhere. On the west side, near Carnegie Hall, stands 1740 Broadway, a 26-storey building that Blackstone, an investment firm, bought for $605m in 2014—only to default on its mortgage in 2022. Soaring above Grand Central station is the iconic Helmsley building. Its mortgage was recently sent […]
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How the world economy learned to love chaos
Central banks have embarked on austere monetary policy to crush inflation. Worries about the financial system, from bond markets to commercial property to the health of the banks, are ever-present. Some 4bn people will head to the polls this year, with unpredictable consequences. Most concerning of all, the world is on fire, with conflicts from […]
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Are NYCB’s troubles the start of another banking panic?
A bank publishes lousy earnings or an “update” on its business. Its share price plunges. Its name is splashed on newspaper front pages. The bank’s bosses hold a conference call urging calm. Its share price slides some more. Anyone who has paid attention to America’s banking industry over the past year will recognise these events. […]
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Universities are failing to boost economic growth
Universities have boomed in recent decades. Higher-education institutions across the world now employ on the order of 15m researchers, up from 4m in 1980. These workers produce five times the number of papers each year. Governments have ramped up spending on the sector. The justification for this rapid expansion has, in part, followed sound economic […]
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Sam Bankman-Fried’s downfall is complete
IT TOOK A jury just four hours to deliberate on the seven, complicated charges of financial fraud facing Sam Bankman-Fried, the founder of FTX, a cryptocurrency exchange. They had to parse what would make him guilty of defrauding his customers and his lenders; and of conspiring with others to commit securities fraud, commodities fraud and […]
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Evergrande’s liquidation is a new low in China’s property crisis
“Enough is enough,” declared a Hong Kong judge on January 29th of Evergrande, a failing Chinese property behemoth, and its two-year struggle to avoid repaying its creditors. In a landmark ruling, the court ordered a liquidation of the company, which, with more than $300bn in liabilities, is the world’s most indebted real-estate developer. A provisional […]
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Investors may be getting the Federal Reserve wrong, again
The interest-rate market has a dirty secret, which practitioners call “the hairy chart”. Its main body is the Federal Reserve’s policy rate, plotted as a thick line against time on the x-axis. Branching out from this trunk are hairs: fainter lines showing the future path for interest rates that the market, in aggregate, expects at […]
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Real wages have risen in America and are rebounding in Europe
Yet workers remain miserable
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America may soon be in recession, according to a famous rule
For financial markets the Holy Grail is a perfect leading indicator—a gauge that is both simple to monitor and consistently accurate in foretelling the future. In reality, such predictive perfection is unattainable. It is often hard enough to grasp what is happening in the present, let alone the future. A perfect real-time indicator would thus […]
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What economists have learnt from the post-pandemic business cycle
Science advances one funeral at a time, to paraphrase Max Planck. The Nobel prize-winning physicist was arguing that new ideas in his field would only catch on once the advocates of older ones died off. With a little adaptation he could have been describing the dismal science, too: economics advances one crisis at a time. […]
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Ted Pick takes charge of Morgan Stanley
WHEN JAMES GORMAN took the helm of Morgan Stanley it was barely afloat. His tenure as the bank’s chief executive began on January 1st 2010, in the teeth of the global financial crisis. After the failure of Lehman Brothers, in 2008, fear had spread that other dominoes would soon topple. Morgan Stanley seemed a likely […]
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Bill Ackman provides a lesson in activist investing
As with every skirmish in America’s culture wars, how you view the ousting of Harvard University’s president has much to do with where you are sitting. Claudine Gay resigned on January 2nd. Progressives see her as a competent administrator who, as Harvard’s first black president, was subjected to a smear campaign. Conservatives, meanwhile, spy a […]
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Has Team Transitory really won America’s inflation debate?
In late 2021 Jerome Powell, chairman of the Federal Reserve, called for the retirement of “transitory” as a description for the inflation afflicting America. The word had become a bugbear, having been taken by many to mean that the inflation which had bubbled up early in the year would fade away as supply shortages improved. […]
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Has America really escaped inflation?
At some point American economic growth will disappoint expectations. For now, though, it appears to have ended 2023 much as it passed the previous few years, with yet another expansion that defied forecasts. Recent data suggest that the economy grew at an annualised pace of 2.5% or so in the final three months of the […]
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How to get rich in the 21st century
By 2050 there will be a new crop of economic powers—if things go to plan. Narendra Modi, India’s prime minister, wants his country’s GDP per person to surpass the World Bank’s high-income threshold three years before then. Indonesia’s leaders reckon that they have until the mid-century mark (when an ageing population will start to drag […]
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Will America manage a soft landing in 2024?
Could 2024 be a year unlike any in America’s post-war economic history? Never since 1945 has annual inflation, measured by the consumer-price index, fallen from above 5% to below 3% without a recession at the time of the fall or within the subsequent 18 months. Yet professional forecasters surveyed by the Federal Reserve Bank of […]
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Why bitcoin is up by almost 150% this year
Chopping off their heads does not work: cockroaches can live without one for as long as a week. Whacking them is no guarantee either: their flexible exoskeletons can bend to accommodate as much as 900 times their body weight. Nor is flushing them down the toilet a solution: some breeds can hold their breath for […]
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